The Impact Of Climate Change On Major Pulse Production: Empirical Evidence From Punjab

Abstract

The study investigates the climate change impact on pulses production in Punjab through the application of the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) bounds test. Utilizing annual time series data on three key climatic variables—rainfall, minimum temperature, maximum temperature—and pulse production, the analysis reveals a sustained relationship between pulse production and climatic changes in Punjab. Short-term analysis indicates that all variables, except temperature, significantly impact pulse production. Notably, both short-term and long-term analyses underscore the substantial influence of rainfall on pulse production. Diagnostic tests were conducted to assess model stability, including the Breusch–Godfrey LM test for serial correlation, the Breusch–Pagan–Godfrey test and ARCH test for heteroscedasticity, the Ramsey RESET test for correct specification, and the Jarque–Bera test for evaluating the normal distribution of residuals. Consequently, the study suggests implementing policies that encourage novel agricultural approaches and measures aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on pulses production in Punjab.