Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on the Performance of the Indian stock market

Abstract

This paper analyses the macroeconomic factors influencing performance of Indian stock market index NIFTY 50. The study is unique in nature as it employ both, primary and secondary to derive the conclusion. Initially, nine years monthly data of macroeconomic variables are regressed against monthly performance of NIFTY 50 index using logistic regression. In second stage the outcome of regression analysis is ratified with primary data collected through face to face interview of the stock market expert. The secondary data analysis confirm Dow jones index and exchange rate movement are the main determinants of NIFTY 50 index. However, expert opined that other factors like political stability, economic situation in developed and bilateral relations of India with other countries are also important to forecast the NIFTY 50 index movement. This is the first study in Indian context, to combine domestic and international factors to forecast NIFTY 50 index movement.